7 (lighthearted!) recession indicators, fashion & beauty edition
No mascara, no problems...? š¬
The United States is not *officially* in a recession, but thatās not going to stop us from being completely frazzled about the state of the world. Iāve heard the term ārecession indicatorā thrown around here and there in conversation online since roughly last spring, which makes sense because thatās when I lost both my job and my mind, so my attention was especially attuned to anything that might make me feel a bit better about being hurled into a job market that everyone (still) describes as apocalyptic. Itās been over a year now, our GDP is in the green, and yet it still kind of feels like weāre fucked, evidenced in large part by the fact that 42% of Americans say ātotal economic collapseā is likely in the next decade. Gulp. But instead of the gloom and AI-doom vibes of 2025, this summer we (I?) seem to be having a bit more fun with it.
No-mascara summer. Bare nails as a status symbol. Slayyyter writing an entire song about wanting beat-up Chanels (and a cigarette). Weāre even digging old Adidas shorts out of our closets from middle school, pairing them with a button down shirt, and calling it peak fashion. I think I love this for us? Weāre thrashing around to Madonna like itās 2005 and obsessing (š) over a horror movie about female personal autonomy that just broke the record for highest grossing movie ever made for less than a million dollars. What a time to be alive.
Whether weāre sliding towards an economic downturn or not, here are my 7 favorite spring/summer ā26 recession indicators, fashion & beauty edition:
1. Flip flops and jelly shoes
Whether you like the look or not, jelly shoes are made out of plastic. The lore is that jellies were invented after WWII as a cheaper alternative to leather and cotton, when France was still recovering from wartime material shortages. (Thereās an alternate version of the story that says jelly shoes were invented in Brazil in the 70s, but either way, both Madonna and Princess Diana co-signed on jellies in the 80s and weāve been wearing them pretty much ever since.) A pair can be had these days for roughly $20-$70, which is cheap considering a pair of leather Birkenstocks will run you about $175. *If* I was going to buy a pair, it would probably be these, but my feet are prone to rioting whenever I wear plastic shoes. Jelly heels? Help.
Flip flops, on the other hand, have been around since biblical times. Theyāre the OG cheapest shoe you can buy. Are we surprised that weāre suddenly wearing flip flops out to dinner? I have a moral stance against buying flip flops over maybe $60, because āexpensive flip flopā is an oxymoron that makes my brain short circuit. I fished my old burgundy Havianas out of my closet the other day only to discover that they spontaneously broke at some point between now and last summer. I started casually looking for another pair online and was prepared to click ābuyā the moment I saw these red satin flip flops (drool), then had a heart attack when I saw the price. $228? For FLIP FLOPS?????? Iāll see myself out.
2. Athletic shorts
If you were a middle school kid who owned several pairs of colorful athletic shorts from Nike, Adidas, and/or Umbro, please raise your hand. Unfortunately none of my childhood soccer uniforms came with me to adulthood, so if I want in on the athletic shorts trend Iāll have to purchase myself a new pair. Criminal that certain versions of these shorts are going for $170 when you can buy a pretty standard pair on Depop for like $8, because capitalism makes us categorically incapable of behaving.
Personally I think this trend mirrors the fact that weāre all kind of freaked out at the moment and subconsciously want our parents to pity us. Who hasnāt daydreamed at least once recently about quitting their job, selling their house, and holing up in their childhood bedroom????? If I show up at my parentsā house wearing a pair of shiny Umbros, will my mom make me a snack tray?
3. Bare nails
Iāve been a bare-nails kind of person pretty much my whole life, so I find it *hilarious* that bare nails are suddenly a trend. Just call it what it is: No one really wants to pay for a manicure right now. Even rich people! The New York Times just ran an article titled āWhen Did Bare Nails Become a Status Symbol?ā that is, I kid you not, completely behind a paywall. First I giggled, then threw my phone across the room.
āNudeā colored nails are simply easier to paint yourself. I am writing this after one of my nails very violently broke between taking off my horrifically chipped polish and finding the time to paint my nails with one coat of "Cloud Nineā by Londontown, which is a barely-there soft blue Iāve been wearing all summer. I love being accidentally on trend!!!
4. Silver jewelry
The biggest bummer in finally learning my color season (light spring) was finding out once and for all that I donāt look very good in silver. I already kind of knew this in my heart but didnāt want to believe it, because sterling silver is so much cheaper than 14k solid gold itās not even funny (roughly $2/gram for silver and $75/gram for 14k gold). Is silver coming back in style right now because all the āsummersā and āwintersā out there are finally getting their due, or is it really to save a little cash on accessories? You tell me.
5. No mascara
I did a double take when I read this piece about 2026 being a āno-mascara summerā on The Cut. Suddenly skipping mascara has a cool girl vibe to it? āGhost lashesā are somehow glamorous? In an era where 12% of people are using a GLP-1 and botox is available on every street corner, weāre saying we no longer think longer, fuller eyelashes (a sign of youth and beauty) look better? I donāt buy it. Mascara has gone out before, but it always comes back.
You know weāve really lost the plot when a Google search turns up beauty articles giving tips on āhow to master the no mascara look.ā (What?) Maybe all the cool people in LA and New York stopped wearing mascara because they lost their jobs and canāt pay rent, let alone buy a $29 tube of mascara thatās just going to melt off in the summer heat, anyway. After all, all the cool girls get firedā¦
6. Beaded statement necklaces
What in the early 2000s??? This trend feels a bit cringe until you realize a harsh truth which is, again, that plastic is cheaper than metal. $300 beaded necklaces featuring semi-precious gemstones (opal, aquamarine, citrine, etc.) are entirely missing the point, but if you want to transport yourself back to the relative safety of 2012 with something like this that can be had for $50, I say have at it. Weāre doing this trend in a more sophisticated way than 10-15 years ago, at least thatās what Iām telling myself š¬
When I lost my job last spring, I gave away almost every piece of jewelry Iād accumulated over the 6+ years I spent selling it, but I did keep an opal choker that is currently balled up in my bathroom drawer because it turned a kind of sickly shade of yellow/orange. Thankfully, it was freeā¦
7. Weird hemlines
Speaking of the early 2000s, I learned about the hemline index in a history of fashion class while I was studying abroad in London in 2009. The basic idea is that skirt and dress hemlines get longer when a recession is looming, but we show off our legs when the stock market starts to party. So what the hell does that mean about the weird ass asymmetrical hemlines weāre seeing right now???? It means we all feel insane and donāt know whatās going on. At least thatās how I feel when I see jagged, non-commital hemlines on major celebs. Iām not saying theyāre bad, as I would probably trust Law Roach with my life, but I do wonder how weāll look back on these looks five years from nowā¦ šāāļø
Before I go, I would be remiss not to drop some screen shots of three more recession indicators I came across on Reddit:
Drop your favorite (lighthearted) recession indicators in the comments! xx
Hands down, the return of FROYO as the "it" dessert of the summer is the recession indicator that sends chills down my spine
as a person in the film industry, i keep saying all the celebrities who used to only do movies now doing tv is a recession indicator, as well as how many celebrities are in commercials right now. those jobs used to go to us working actors but now big names are getting them.