#67. Love is not blind
But finding love in the pods is currently the most successful way to meet your partner on TV
Wow! There has been a lot going on in the wild west of the internet over the past week or so. We had the Kate Middleton Photoshop scandal, the House of Representatives signing the TikTok ban bill, the Boeing whistleblower murder, the absolutely brain-rattling 2021 music video featuring Daisy Kent resurfacing (“said you can LICK ON MY SACK, SUCK MY NUTS now”), and a completely delicious Love is Blind reunion episode. Not to mention–The Bachelor finale is next Monday, and we’re only a month away from the release of The Tortured Poets Department, and you know I am counting down the days!!!! I’ve been working on a Taylor Swift deep-dive for a few weeks (sorry for all of you non-Swifties out there; I am who I am) but it’s taken on a life of its own and now exists as an eleven page Google Doc with absolutely no organization and I have yet been able to tame the wild beast because every time I TOUCH it, it keeps GROWING. Maybe I’ll get it together before the album comes out, and maybe it will never see the light of day. Only time will tell.
Today I wanted to do a bit of a shallower dive into my other favorite obsession that feels very timely: reality dating shows. The Love is Blind season 6 reunion was actually really really good for once, except for the fake eating of all that food at the end of the episode–no doubt an in-our-faces attempt by Kinetic Content to convince us all that they actually feed their contestants properly and often. I couldn’t help but notice the giant glass of shrimp cocktail that had been sitting there under the hot stage lights for a few hours, that the season 6 contestants were then encouraged to eat… ew.
At the top of the reunion show, Nick Lachey proudly announced that in the six seasons of Love is Blind that have aired so far, eleven couples have gotten married on the show, and nine of those couples are still married today. He made it seem like that is a really good statistic, so naturally, I decided to go into full investigation mode find out if it actually is.
There are a lot of reality TV dating shows out there, but not all of them have lasting relationships in mind. If marriage or a stable long-term relationship is the ultimate goal, we’re looking at shows like Love is Blind, The Bachelor (and The Bachelorette and Bachelor In Paradise), 90 Day Fiancé, Married At First Sight, Love Island, FBoy Island, Perfect Match, The Ultimatum, Are You The One? and more I’m sure I’m missing. I don’t watch all of these shows–I’m a diehard Bachelor franchise fan, and I watch all the Netflix shows plus FBoy Island, which was created by a former Bachelor producer–but they’re all pretty much a spin on the same thing, just with slightly different rules to make them each unique.
For this issue, I’m only interested in looking at the shows where the couples don’t know each other before filming. Of course the success rate of 90 Day Fiancé is going to be higher because couples apply to be on the show together, so that doesn’t really count for this particular analysis. Same thing with The Ultimatum.
What I’m most interested in is this question: Which reality TV dating show is the best at creating successful relationships between people they have introduced on camera? A fascinating subject.
And wow! What I found actually shocked me. All it took was several hours of deep-diving into each show to determine which couples are still together (there was quite a bit of Instagram stalking involved in my research so I feel reasonably confident about the conclusions I’ve drawn, although I could have missed a breakup here and there, sorry!!), and figuring out how many seasons of each show have aired. Then I created a very simple formula to determine a success rate based on how many couples per season are still together:
Success rate = # of couples still together (or divorced**) / total number of seasons aired
**The first calculation I did excluded divorced couples, but then I decided that wasn’t actually fair. With the exception of Married At First Sight, getting married to someone you met on one of these shows still feels like a “success.” It felt wrong not to include Ashley and J.P. or Rachel and Bryan, you know????
Wow, I was not ready for the results. I was not ready!!!!!!!!
First – one thing is incredibly clear: Shows where multiple couples are dating at once and more time is allowed for relationships to develop over the course of the show are automatically going to have a higher rate of success. This seems obvious, but The Bachelor/ette absolutely thinks of itself as the King of reality dating television, even though its premise–one possible couple per season and hardly any time spent together during filming–makes it less likely to succeed by nature. It was the first of its kind and has been around since 2002, before even Facebook was invented. A different era!!!! But The Bachelor still believes it’s the best reality dating show on television because everyone is there for “the right reasons”, every season is dramatic yet still family-friendly, and the process “really works.” Except it doesn’t. Not nearly as well as the other shows it’s competing against.
That’s right – The Bachelor came in dead last in my analysis with a 0.2 success rate (unless we’re counting Perfect Match, which has had just one season so far and produced no couples).
Here is what I found for all the shows in terms of success rate, defined as the number of couples each show has successfully produced per season who are still together, or got married and then divorced:
Love is Blind (US): 2
Bachelor in Paradise: 1.4
Love Island (UK+US): 0.9
Married at First Sight: 0.7
FBoy Island (US+AUS+NZ): 0.6
Are You The One?: 0.4
The Bachelor franchise (US, all shows): 0.4
The Bachelorette: 0.3
The Bachelor + Golden Bachelor: 0.2
Perfect Match: 0
So it turns out that Nick Lachey was actually right to peacock the stats of Love is Blind last week. Two successes per season of Love is Blind is actually really good! If you’re single and looking to actually find love on reality TV, you should clearly apply to be on Love is Blind when it comes to your city. We currently have camera crews in Minneapolis filming our season, and I CANNOT WAIT to see it.
Looking at this data, you might be wondering what the point is to even sign up for The Bachelor/ette any more if the success rate is so low. It used to translate to an instant career as an influencer if you made it at least halfway through the season (or ended up with a big storyline on Bachelor in Paradise–looking at you, Grocery Store Joe), but those days are mostly behind us.
According to one of my favorite people on the internet, Suzana Somers (@bachelordata), Instagram followings for reality dating contestants are down pretty much across the board from the golden days of fiveish years ago. And there are a few notable exceptions, but generally speaking, followings for contestants on Love is Blind and Love Island are much higher than The Bachelor/ette and the other shows on the list. I loved Fboy Island’s Hali Okeowo from the most recent season, and my jaw hit the floor when I saw she has less than 10,000 followers on Instagram. Compare her to someone like Amber Desire (AD) from LIB 6–my favorite person from this season–who currently has an Instagram following of 696K. Or take Jess Vestal, who didn’t even end up in a couple and is well on her way to a million with 884K. Izzy Zapata from LIB 5, who is set to appear on Season 2 of Perfect Match, has 199K, and Lydia Arleen, who got married in the same season, has 243K followers, as points of comparison. Are we seeing a bit of a resurgence in the numbers so far in 2024? Only time will tell.
Compared to the final three women on The Bachelor this season, only one has amassed a following that can compete with this season’s biggest Love is Blind contestants–my fellow small-town Minnesotan Daisy Kent with 509K followers (Daisy is from Becker, about 20 minutes away from where I grew up). My current prediction for this season’s winner, Kelsey Anderson, has 182K, and Rachel Nance has 49K; a number I find puzzlingly low for how fun, relatable, and stunning she is. Another of my favorite contestants from this season who didn’t make the final four, Katelyn DeBacker (a radiochemist who likes books by Sarah J. Maas, say less) has 9,700. Here’s hoping they choose Canadian wild woman Maria Georgas–the only contestant from this season to match Daisy’s parasocial ascent with 520K followers–as the next Bachelorette. (Please note that by the time you read this, these followings will probably be higher–I pulled them late Tuesday night).
In my opinion, the argument now for going on The Bachelor/ette is really to make it over to Bachelor in Paradise to work on expanding your social media following and maybe find love, but it’s currently in danger of cancellation. After nine seasons, the show has a decent 1.4 couples per season overall success rate, but the last two seasons in a row have given us ZERO couples who are still together. No one wants to watch a show about finding love and getting engaged when all the couples break up immediately, there are multiple cheating scandals, and everybody ends up drowning in a pool of their own tears. The show is in trouble.
Thanks to a combination of Charity Lawson, Joey Graziadei, and Gerry Turner, The Bachelor/ette (and Golden Bachelor) are actually doing extremely well recently in terms of ratings and relationship success. But without Bachelor in Paradise, the franchise just isn’t very good at the one thing it wants us to believe it’s good at, which is making successful matches. The show used to be really good at creating reality TV/social media stars (think Hannah Brown, Tyler Cameron, Kaitlyn Bristowe, Nick Viall, Hannah Godwin, Dale Moss, Madi Prewett, Rachel Lindsay; I could go on), and except for a small resurgence this year with Maria and Daisy, those days are kind of over. What the show is actually still good at is creating bingeable drama laced with a ton of old-school nostalgia, which is good too, but we don’t want drama without a happy ending that actually lasts every season or two. It ruins the experience.
Which brings me back to Love is Blind. Ask anyone who watches LIB what the worst season of the show has been, and I’m pretty confident that everyone will respond immediately with “season 5.” We did get one married couple out of it, but I think I’m not alone when I say I’m genuinely shocked they’re still together. The entire season was a dramatic, hot pile of garbage, and we the viewers didn’t really get the happy ending we were looking for. No shade to Lydia and Milton, but their love story was strange. Drama is fun, but no one wants to watch garbage.
These shows have to work to be enjoyable. We only got one (fine… two) couples out of Love is Blind season 6, but I still find myself absolutely rooting for AD and Clay to get back together since watching the reunion (😭). It was a better show than season 5, but still pales in comparison to the glory of season 4. I’m not sure it’s a coincidence that the best season so far (in my humble opinion) is the one that produced the most successful couples.
Also, sorry for bringing this up, but – haven’t we proven by now that love is definitely not blind? Six seasons in, it seems pretty clear to me that there is absolutely an important element to love that cannot be determined without seeing a person and spending real time with them physically in the flesh. Yes, the Love is Blind concept does actually work the best of all the reality dating shows currently on TV. But we’ve also seen so many couples get engaged on the show who then break up within a few weeks because there is clearly just something off – either there’s no chemistry, one or both people don’t find the other person attractive, or they just feel a general sense of wrongness–but that feeling only appeared after the pods stage.
The couples that do make it are the ones that don’t hit any of the above snags when they finally get to meet in person, but that feels a little like luck of the draw. Brittany and Kenneth are a fantastic example of this. I thought a lot of their conversations in the pods were batshit fucking crazy, but they seemed to want all the same things and revealed at the reunion that they are now besties so they clearly like each other–but they absolutely do not want to rip each other’s clothes off. They just didn’t know that in the pods. And may I remind you that Zack originally chose IRINA over his now-wife Bliss, and they were absolutely repelled by each other from the very first moment they met in person. Their breakup is probably the realest conversation we have ever seen on Love is Blind:
Come on! Isn’t this video proof that love is absolutely not blind? 🤡 When Zack proposed, Irina said “easiest yes of my life.” Then they met in person, and she said later in an interview that “it wasn’t about his looks or anything, I just had this gut feeling that something just didn’t feel right.” Amen.
Anyway, I could go on and on, but I am both shocked by these success rates and concerned that Netflix might need to change the name of its show, haha. What do you think about reality dating TV right now? Thoughts? Opinions? Who do you think is walking away engaged to Joey Graziadei next week?
K bye,
Kelly
P.S. Here’s all the data for anyone who wants it!
Love is Blind
Season 1: Lauren & Cameron, Amber & Matt
Season 2: Iyana & Jarrette (divorced), Danielle & Nick (divorced)
Season 3: Alexa & Brennan, Colleen & Matt
Season 4: Tiffany & Brett, Chelsea & Kwame, Bliss & Zach
Season 5: Lydia & Milton
Season 6: Amy & Johnny, Jeramy & Sarah-Ann (ugh I’m counting this couple even though I hate them)
Success rate: 2 couples per season
Bachelor in Paradise
Season 1: No one (Lacy & Marcus were never legally married, so they’re not technically divorced)
Season 2: Jade & Tanner
Season 3: Ashley & Jared, Carly & Evan (divorced)
Season 4: Raven & Adam
Season 5: Astrid & Kevin, Krystal & Chris (divorced)
Season 6: Hannah & Dylan, Caelynn & Dean
Season 7: Serena & Joe, Becca & Thomas, Mari & Kenny, Abigail & Noah (engaged), Chris & Alana (dating)
Seasons 8-9: No one
Success rate: 1.4 couples per season
Love Island
UK
Season 1: No one (Cally & Luis have a daughter, but are not together anymore and were never married)
Season 2: Cara & Nathan, Olivia & Alex
Season 3: Camilla & Jamie
Season 5: Molly-Mae & Tommy
Season 8: Indiyah & Dami, Tasha & Andrew
Season 9: Kai & Sanam, Tanya & Shaq
US
Season 3: Kyra & Will
Season 5: Hannah & Marco, Taylor & Bergie, Carmen & Kenzo
Success rate: 0.9 couples per season
Married at First Sight
Season 1: Jamie & Doug
Season 5: Ashley & Anthony
Season 6: Shawniece & Jephte
Season 7: Danielle & Bobby
Season 8: Stephanie & AJ, Kristine & Keith
Season 9: Deonna & Gregory
Season 10: Jessica & Austin
Season 11: Amani & Woody
Season 12: Briana & Vincent
Season 16: Nicole & Christopher
Success rate: 0.7 couples per season
FBoy Island
USA (3): No one
Australia (1): Ziara & Izaya, Molly & Nick
New Zealand (1): Coco & Zac
Success rate: 0.6 couples per season
****Please note, these are just the English-speaking countries of FBoy Island. It was harder to find information about the couples on the seasons in Spain, Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden so eventually I gave up lol
Are You The One?
Season 1: Amber & Ethan
Season 2: Jenni & Curtis
Seasons 3-5: No one
Season 6: Uche & Clinton
Season 7: Cali & Tomas
Season 8-9: No one
Success rate: 0.4 couples per season
The Bachelor Franchise
(The Bachelor (27), The Bachelorette (20), Golden Bachelor (1), Bachelor in Paradise (9), Bachelor Winter Games (1), Bachelor Pad (3))
Total seasons: 61 (we aren’t counting Joey’s season yet)
Total couples: 25
Success rate: 0.4 couples per season
The Bachelorette
Season 1: Trista & Ryan
Season 7: Ashley & J.P. (divorced)
Season 9: Desiree & Chris
Season 12: Jojo & Jordan
Season 13: Rachel & Bryan (divorced)
Season 20: Charity & Dotun
Success rate: 0.3 couples per season
The Bachelor
Season 13: Jason & Molly
Season 17: Sean & Catherine
Season 22: Arie & Lauren
Season 25: Matt & Rachael (dating)
Season 27: Zach & Kaity (engaged)
Golden Bachelor S1: Gerry & Theresa
Just came here to say that you can not tease us with a Taylor Swift deep dive and then say it might not see the light of day. That's just cruel! We need to see it. :)
So excited for the Taylor deep dive!